Let's be honest, the thrill of placing a bet often comes with a moment of confusion right after you click "confirm." You see your potential payout, and a part of your brain asks, "Wait, how did they get that number?" If you're new to NBA moneyline betting, that question might pop up every single time. I remember when I first started, I’d just trust the screen, a bit like how I approached the opening hours of Pokémon Scarlet and Violet—full of excitement but vaguely following the tutorial until I was set free to explore Paldea. Understanding your potential winnings shouldn't feel like a cumbersome tutorial; it should be the quick primer that sets you loose to bet with confidence. So, let's break down exactly how much you win on an NBA moneyline bet, because it’s simpler than you think, but the implications of those numbers are everything.
At its core, a moneyline bet is simply picking which team will win the game outright. No point spreads, no complications—just victory. The tricky part, and where the profit lies, is in the odds format. In the United States, you’ll primarily encounter American odds, which are expressed with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. Here’s the golden rule I’ve drilled into my own betting practice: The minus sign (-) indicates the favorite and tells you how much you need to risk to win $100. The plus sign (+) indicates the underdog and tells you how much you would win on a $100 bet. Let’s make it concrete. Say the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Orlando Magic. The sportsbook might list the Lakers at -150 and the Magic at +130. If you bet on the Lakers, you need to wager $150 to profit $100 (your total return would be $250—your $150 stake plus $100 profit). If you believe in the Magic as the underdog, a $100 bet would net you a $130 profit (a total return of $230). Notice that the numbers aren’t symmetrical. That’s the sportsbook’s built-in margin, or "vig," which is how they stay in business. It’s a fundamental concept, and once you internalize it, reading a moneyline becomes second nature.
But life isn't lived in neat $100 increments. The real beauty of the formula is its scalability. You don’t need to bet $150 to back that Lakers line; you can bet $15, or $1,500. The math scales linearly. For a favorite (negative odds), your potential profit is calculated as (Your Wager / (Odds / 100)). So, a $75 bet on the Lakers at -150 would be: $75 / (150/100) = $75 / 1.5 = $50 profit. For an underdog (positive odds), it’s even more straightforward: (Your Wager * (Odds / 100)). That same $75 on the Magic at +130 yields: $75 * (130/100) = $75 * 1.3 = $97.50 profit. I keep a simple mental note: with favorites, you’re dividing; with underdogs, you’re multiplying. It’s a tiny cognitive trick that speeds up decision-making when you’re comparing lines across different books, which, in my opinion, is a non-negotiable habit for any serious bettor.
Now, let’s talk about what these numbers really represent: implied probability. This is where casual betting transforms into a more analytical pursuit. The odds aren't just random; they reflect the bookmaker's assessment of each team's chance to win, adjusted for their profit. Converting moneyline odds to an implied percentage is crucial. For a negative odd like -150, the formula is: (Odds / (Odds + 100)) * 100. So, -150 becomes (150 / (150 + 100)) * 100 = (150/250)*100 = 60%. The sportsbook is implying the Lakers have a 60% chance to win. For the Magic at +130, it’s: (100 / (Odds + 100)) * 100. That’s (100 / (130 + 100)) * 100 = (100/230)*100 = 43.48%. Notice that 60% + 43.48% = 103.48%. That extra 3.48% is the vig—the book's built-in advantage. Your job is to find instances where your own researched probability exceeds the implied probability. If you’ve done your homework on injury reports, back-to-back schedules, and defensive matchups, and you believe the Magic’s true win probability is closer to 50%, then that +130 line holds tremendous value. This shift from "who will win?" to "is the payout worth the risk?" is the moment you become a strategic bettor, free to explore the market on your own terms.
In practice, I find the most common mistake isn't miscalculating payouts—most apps do that for you instantly—but misjudging the risk-reward ratio presented by those payouts. A heavy favorite at -400 might seem like a "lock," but it requires you to risk $400 to win $100. Are you truly confident enough to risk that much for that little? Conversely, a plucky underdog at +350 offers a huge payout, but it signals the team has a likely win probability around 22%. That’s a long shot, and while hitting one feels fantastic, they’re called long shots for a reason. My personal preference leans toward disciplined underdog hunting in the regular season, especially in the NBA, where travel, fatigue, and random shooting nights can create upsets that the models might not fully capture. I’d rather risk $100 to win $250 on a team I believe is undervalued than tie up $250 to win $100 on a juggernaut that might just have an off night. The payout structure fundamentally shapes your betting strategy and bankroll management.
So, the next time you look at an NBA moneyline, see beyond just the team names. See the price tag. That -110 on a near-even matchup, that +220 on a home underdog, they are direct financial expressions of risk and reward. Calculating your potential win is the basic literacy of sports betting. Mastering the why behind those numbers—the implied probability, the vig, and the value—is what allows you to graduate from simply following the narrative to crafting your own. It turns the experience from a game of chance into a field of analysis. And much like finally getting free reign to explore all of Paldea, that knowledge opens up the entire map. You’re no longer just following paths; you’re charting your own course based on the terrain you understand. Now, you know not just how much you can win, but more importantly, you can start to understand why you might.